第三年了：Dow could pass 20K by end of 2015: Jeremy Siegel

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https://finance.yahoo.com/news/dow-could-pass-20k-end-134734677.html

Longtime stock bull Jeremy Siegel told CNBC on Tuesday that he sees favorable market trends-including the prospect for solid economic growth with low inflation-that could send the Dow Jones Industrial Average (Dow Jones Global Indexes: .DJI) past the 20,000 level by the end 2015. "There are a number of goods things, I think, that need to happen, but certainly that would be even conservative for fair market value if we get some of these favorable trends coming together over this next year," the Wharton School finance professor said on " Squawk Box ." Read More 'Major correction' in 3 to 5 years, Icahn says He cited economic growth of 3 percent to 4 percent, low inflation, cheap gas prices and an improving job market as some of the factors that could help push stocks higher. But he said, "The 3 percent [GDP], that's the wild card." He cautioned that many forecasters are calling for growth of 2 percent to 2.5 percent in the fourth quarter.

During the October selloff , Siegel had started to waver a bit on whether his prediction of Dow 18,000 by year-end would come to pass. But with the market back on track, he told CNBC earlier this month that he's again confident that blue chips would reach that level after all. In a lackluster session Monday, the S&P 500 (^GSPC) eked out its 42nd new high of 2014. The index has moved less than one-tenth of a percent in each of the last five sessions, and the Dow has only had one triple-digit point move this month after having 16 in October. The S&P was up almost 10.5 percent for the year as of Monday's close. The Dow was up about 6.5 percent in 2014.

Read More Why a Santa rally might not be in the cards "Two to three years ago, I thought we were really undervalued given interest rates and earnings," Siegel told "Squawk Box" on Tuesday. "I thought the bullish calls were really easy to make. I still think we are 10 percent undervalued given the interest rate structure." Siegel said he'd view the Dow between 19,000 and 19,500 as fair value. While Siegel kept preaching his bullish message, other market watchers including Carl Icahn are less optimistic. At a Reuters investment summit Monday, the billionaire warned of a "major correction" in the next few years.

ssgo2008

正好找人接盘。 呵呵

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Failed for 2015!

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美股牛市还多久？ 务必小心这十大警讯

新的一年即将到来，投资咨询公司Pento Portfolio Strategies创办人Michael Pento提醒投资人，如今美股在低廉信贷下已现泡沫，下波修正迹象也已显现，只不过被金融机构技巧性掩盖与轻忽。Pento 提醒在未来一年投资人务必注意以下十大警讯：

1. 波罗的海散装船运价指数(BDI)：代表大宗商品航运费用的该指数，近来跌到1985年首度发布该指数的最低点，显示全球贸易量急遽下滑，更预示着全球性经济衰退的到来。

2. 全球大宗商品：由19种不同商品组成，能反应全球商品期货价格的CRB商品价格指数如今已跌到2009年低点，显示全球经济成长明显放缓。

3. 名义国内生产总值(GDP)：美国今年第三季名义GDP为2.7%，如今联准会升息在即，但回顾2004年美联储启动升息周期时，当时第二季名义GDP高达6.6%，而近几次美联储升息的名义GDP平均都在5-7%左右。

4. 整体企业库存与销售比：如今销售正在下滑，库存持续增加。这正是每次经济衰退会出现的信号。

5. 国债收益率曲线：衡量2至10年期国债的利差正逐步缩小，近来10年期国债收益率跌至三周低点，2年期国债收益率则推升至五年新高。短期美国国债收益率提高，反映投资人相信联准会将在下周三利率会议上宣布升息。根据历史经验，收益率曲线反转后，经济衰退就会伴随而来。

6. 企业获利：标准普尔500指数第三季非公认会计原则(non-GAAP)获利下滑1%，依公认会计原则(GAAP)计算获利则下滑14%，代表企业努力利用非经常性项目美化财报。

7. 美元升值：强势美元对跨国企业的营收和获利会造成损害，尤其日前美元指数强势站上100大关。对跨国企业来说，如今不仅得面临全球经济趋缓对营收所带来的冲击，还得再加上货币转换的双重损失。

8. 最新数据证实美国制造业正步入衰退： 11月ISM制造业指数由上月的50.1暴跌至48.6，为2012年来首度陷入收缩。11月芝加哥采购经理人指数急??坠至代表萎缩50以下的48.7，还有多项制造业数据显示美国制造业已陷入萎缩。

9. 信用利差正逐步扩大：一般来说，当信用利差扩大时，经济成长将趋缓。

10：标准普尔500指数处于史上第二高估值：经周期调整本益比(CAPE)，11月为26.19，当该值高过25，表示股票被高估。目前标普500指数本益比为19，高于长期平均的15。

基于以上十大警讯，Pento 认为当前美联储在全球正处于衰退边缘时即将展开升息，才是不寻常之举。他认为接下来美股恐如2011与2008年一样大跌，提醒投资人当前应该小心为上。