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武漢肺炎的感染率死亡率和火葬場工作强度

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发表于 2020-2-7 10:53:52 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
中國的春節和鑽石公主號郵輪約略相似。到02/07/2020日本厚生勞動省公布,鑽石公主號上新查明檢疫結果的171人中,41人感染新型冠狀病毒。早前已有20人確診。即累計61宗。 3,700 多名乘客和船員61名確診,差不多2%確診率。武漢1100萬大概20萬確診患者。當然前提是疫情控制住,不再繼續傳染。
然後是死亡率,肺炎的死亡率是固定的已經有歷史數據的。武漢肺炎既然是肺炎,死亡率就會在肺炎的死亡率範圍内。肺炎住院病人的一個月内死亡率5-10%,重症病人的死亡率30%。如果我們認定武漢肺炎都是重症病人的話,死亡率是30%。全武漢一個月内最多將會死亡6萬人。治療得當數字會比這個少,鑽石公主號郵輪還沒有死亡。
https://www.healthline.com/healt ... die-from-pneumonia?

武汉市汉口殡仪馆 http://whhkbyg.com/html/guanyuwomen/ 位于黄陂区临空港经济开发区天阳路(滠口街枫橡咀村特1号)。现有殡仪服务车辆20余辆,高档火化炉30台,遗体冷藏床位346个
武汉市武昌殡仪馆http://027byg.com/about/gsjj/位于雄楚大道楚平路3号,年火化遗体8000。有6台国内先进的程控火化炉


火化時間多久?一般火化的时间在1.5小时到3个小时之间。
漢口火葬場30個爐子2小時一人一天可燒360人。

武昌殡仪馆一天72人。
加上其他小火葬場,就算一天燒600人吧。
一個月武漢現有火葬場可處理2萬人。如果死6萬人的話一定有積壓狀況出現。

垬只需要每日如實報告全武漢焚尸數量,減去往年的平均數,就可估計此瘟疫的强度。遮遮掩掩只能謠言四起,損人不利己。


发表于 2020-2-9 00:00:21 | 显示全部楼层
隐瞒是中共的行为规则, 不会改的。
 楼主| 发表于 2020-2-10 08:49:10 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 万得福 于 2020-2-10 09:22 编辑

日本TBS電視台當地時間10日報導,鑽石公主號郵輪上傳出又新增約60人感染2019新型冠狀病毒肺炎,加上之前已確診的70人,船上群聚感染人數總計已達約130人。https://reut.rs/31Ewaqg
日本政府厚生勞動省表示,截至9日為止,船上共有70人確診感染武漢肺炎,但相關人士表示,根據病毒檢查結果,又新增約60人確診。130/3700 = 3.5%, 武漢1100萬得有40萬確診。
鑽石公主號郵輪至今尚無一人死亡。這是中國国家卫生健康委员会通報:
http://www.nhc.gov.cn/wjw/xwfbh/xwzb.shtml
[主持人:] 截至2月9日24时,据各省(区、市)和新疆生产建设兵团报告,现有确诊病例35982例,其中重症病例6484例,累计治愈出院病例3281例,累计死亡病例908例,累计报告确诊病例40171例。以上是疫情情况。2020-02-10 15:00:29 [ 2020-02-10 20:19:51.0 ]


謊言大國,不是一般的牛!
 楼主| 发表于 2020-2-11 21:49:16 | 显示全部楼层

2012/02/12更新

本帖最后由 万得福 于 2020-2-12 10:31 编辑
万得福 发表于 2020-2-10 08:49
日本TBS電視台當地時間10日報導,鑽石公主號郵輪上傳出又新增約60人感染2019新型冠狀病毒肺炎,加上之前已 ...

鑽石公主號郵輪再添39確診患者。縂確診人數174. 一個星期的密集交叉傳染,174/3700=4.7%。https://nypost.com/2020/02/11/39 ... d-with-coronavirus/
其中進入重症治療者4名。尚無死亡。按統計數據,4人的30%是1-2人將會死亡。

自由亚洲电台2月11日报道,一65岁女子,现住址平遥县杜家庄乡苏家堡村。2019年12月25日乘飞机自武汉到太原,26日乘坐出租车到平遥。今年1月1日乘坐私家车返回苏家堡村家中。2月3日由120接到县人民医院就诊。2月5日确诊。从上述通报推断,该名患者从武汉回到山西家乡,至2月3日出现症状,潜伏期长达40天.

至今日本仍未與中國斷航,中國觀光客仍繼續進入日本,而安倍政府對各地公立保健所的指示是如果病例跟武漢和湖北無關就視同非新型肺炎。

https://twitter.com/mjswhitebread

https://twitter.com/yardley_wong
https://www.facebook.com/david.abel.75/videos/10220653233782914/?notif_id=1581307198451297&notif_t=live_video_explicit
 楼主| 发表于 2020-2-12 11:38:01 | 显示全部楼层
https://hub.jhu.edu/2019/11/06/event-201-health-security/
For Event 201, hosted in collaboration with the World Economic Forum and the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, the experts added a new layer of realism by reaching beyond government and NGOs to leaders in the private sector and business community. Participants included representatives from NBCUniversal, UPS, and Johnson & Johnson.
a coronavirus pandemic exercise run by Johns Hopkins, the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation and the World Economic Forum only three months before a real coronavirus outbreak took place in China, the goal will be to use the event to create a central economic authority to distribute resources to "counter the virus." You see, the elites never let a good crisis go to waste.

 楼主| 发表于 2020-2-13 07:44:35 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 万得福 于 2020-2-13 07:46 编辑

2020/02/13 https://www.cnn.com/asia/live-ne ... intl-hnk/index.html
鑽石公主號郵輪再添44確診患者。縂確診人數219. 5天由一人傳染219人·,219/3711 = 5.9%感染率。
日本現在縂確診248人,其中非郵輪確診29人,一名80嵗老太太死亡。
現在就看鑽石公主號郵輪這200多人有多少死亡。
 楼主| 发表于 2020-2-13 22:06:45 | 显示全部楼层
中国疾控中心对截止1月26日的8866个新冠病毒感染确诊和疑似病例的分析,患者平均年龄49岁,潜伏期3-7.2天,25.5%重症肺炎,死亡率3.06%,男人死亡率4.45%,女人死亡率1.25%(男女差异可能和吸烟有关)。基础传染数3.77,与萨斯相当。结论是:新冠病毒传染性与萨斯病毒相当,死亡率更低。
发表于 2020-2-14 21:41:11 | 显示全部楼层
他们说的这些鬼话你也信,现在已经要求武汉准备8万张病床了,大武汉1400万人,如果按照5%
来算就是60万人已经患病,土共还瞒着藏着,不确诊不收治,还拒绝了世卫和美国的防疫专家的
帮助,就是把武汉人民推进地狱。
 楼主| 发表于 2020-2-15 22:23:54 | 显示全部楼层

本帖最后由 万得福 于 2020-2-13 07:46 编辑


2020/02/15 https://www.cnn.com/asia/live-ne ... intl-hnk/index.html
鑽石公主號郵輪再添70確診患者。縂確診人數356. 356/3711 = 9.6%感染率。
日本現在縂確診407人。
靜候鑽石公主號郵輪死亡人數報道。
 楼主| 发表于 2020-2-18 10:32:24 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 万得福 于 2020-2-19 08:34 编辑

2020/02/18
鑽石公主號郵輪縂確診人數542. 542/3711 = 14.6%感染率。天啊!
https://www.usatoday.com/story/t ... sengers/4788804002/

一共18天的傳染15%。現在就靜候死亡數據了。從目前的跡象看,海外的死亡率顯然小於武漢。難道武漢人都是嚇死的?
https://www.cnn.com/asia/live-news/coronavirus-outbreak-02-19-20-intl-hnk/index.html

一月20號上船,25號下船,下船后10天全船開始隔離,上船25天后500人染病。
发表于 2020-2-18 17:53:34 | 显示全部楼层
万得福 发表于 2020-2-18 10:32
2020/02/18
鑽石公主號郵輪縂確診人數542. 356/3711 = 14.6%感染率。天啊!
https://www.usatoday.com/stor ...

病毒12月初就发作了,一月底封城了大家才开始带口罩,
已经过去两个月了,从导演常凯一家,还有武汉武昌医院院长刘智明
染病死亡,医护人员和大导演都不能幸免,更何况普通人家,政府
总想着控制死亡率的数字,习近平不下台不足以平民愤,可以搞一
个武汉肺炎死亡纪念碑,把每个死亡的名字都刻上去,看看到底有
多少人,政府的死亡数字×10可能都不只。
 楼主| 发表于 2020-2-19 11:48:21 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 万得福 于 2020-2-19 11:50 编辑

2020/02/18
鑽石公主號郵輪縂確診人數621. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/ ... na-coronavirus.html
At least 621 passengers aboard the ship, the Diamond Princess, have been infected. On Wednesday, the authorities reported an additional 79 cases on the ship, which originally carried about 3,700 passengers and crew members.
621/3711 = 16.7%感染率。日本官僚和中國共產黨是一丘之貉。
 楼主| 发表于 2020-2-19 12:09:58 | 显示全部楼层

Global centralization is the cause of crisis — not the cure

It should not be surprising that the World Health Organization, a branch of the United Nations, has been so aggressive in cheerleading for the Chinese government and its response to the coronavirus outbreak. After all, China's communist surveillance state model is a beta test for the type of centralization that the U.N. wants for the entire planet. They certainly aren't going to point out that it was China's totalitarian system that allowed the outbreak to spread from the very beginning.
Even now Xi Jinping is trying to rewrite history, claiming that he had been swift in responding to the crisis more than a month before he actually did.
Brave health workers like Li Wenliang, who was punished by the government for warning about the virus in December, have died in the process of trying to fight against the centralized behemoth just to get vital information to the world, but that never happened, right? It was actually president Xi and the CPC that saved the day. The WHO and the CPC say so. You'll never hear the U.N. praise the efforts of Li Wenliang, either; they want his name to disappear down the memory hole as much as the Chinese government does.
The developing narrative is a familiar one — local officials "stifled" the response to the outbreak while the centralized national leadership put things back on track with extreme control measures that have turned the Hubei province into a veritable internment camp. Whatever you do, don't point out that it was the national government's habit of imprisoning health officials that step out of line by releasing "false information" that led to the delayed reaction on the coronavirus. Also, don't point out that ground zero for the outbreak is only 20 miles down the road from the largest Level 4 Biohazard Lab in Asia, because that would make you a "conspiracy theorist."
The message is clear: Centralization works. Even when it fails miserably, it is still the answer to all our problems. All we have to do is "adjust" the historical record a little bit every time the system breaks and then institute even more centralization in response.
In other words, if the interdependent and draconian top-down structure of the globalist state leads to crisis, then it is because it was not centralized enough. Centralization always begets more centralization.
The financial fascist system of central banking and corporate oligarchy leads to socialist welfare state, and the socialist welfare state leads to the surveillance state, and the surveillance state leads to the martial law state, and the martial law state leads to full-on global governance; an endless elitist empire.
The failings of centralization have caused numerous problems long before it led to a potential pandemic. The pandemic simply clarifies the issue. For example, the breakdown in the global supply chain is becoming a bigger threat by the day. Globalism has led to interdependent economies and nation states that no longer have redundancies in production. We have been forced to rely on production centers on the other side of the world for a vast majority of our goods.
When China shuts down, the U.S. economy loses almost 20 percent of its supply chain. When Singapore, Taiwan, Hong Kong and Vietnam shut down, you can add another 5 percent to 10 percent on top of that. Retailers in the U.S. represent around 70 percent of GDP. Shut down the supply chain in Asia and retailers lose a vast array of goods to sell. The U.S. economy eventually shuts down also, even if the virus never spreads here.
Now, some people will argue that we don't need all the "cheap plastic crap" from Asia anyway, and this situation is a "good thing." Sorry to break it to you, but America's economy is built on the selling of cheap plastic crap (along with the selling of the fiat dollar as the world reserve currency). Walmart (Chinamart if you discount agricultural products) is the largest employer in the U.S. and the world, after all. Right or wrong, our economic system is so globalized that the fall of the Chinese dominoes will eventually knock down our own dominoes.
But when this disaster occurs and numerous national economies suffer from enforced globalist integration, guess what will happen next? The globalists will ride to our "rescue" with even greater centralization. This was their agenda all along.
Many people in the liberty movement are now aware of the Event 201 simulation, a war game run by globalists in the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation and the World Economic Forum on a "theoretical" coronavirus pandemic that kills 65 million people. This simulation took place only a couple of months before the real thing exploded in China in December. But hey, maybe that's all just amazing coincidence. What concerns me even more is the solution that was presented at the end of Event 201 — the creation of a centralized global financial body that would manage the international response to the outbreak.
Isn't it amazing how every major catastrophe caused by globalism seems to lead to more globalism? One might start to wonder if some of these events were triggered by incompetence, or if they were deliberately engineered. At the very least, crisis events have been allowed to fester unchecked by organizations like the WHO as they continue to write off the coronavirus as a non-issue that is well under control by a Chinese government that caused it to spread in the first place.
So here is what is going to happen next:
Best case scenario is that the Western world is mostly unscathed by the virus itself, but the economic supply chain suffers major setbacks. The global economy, which was already crashing due to historic levels of corporate and consumer debt, not to mention faltering exports and freight, is finally tipped over the edge. The massive Everything Bubble, fueled by a decade of inflationary central bank stimulus, implodes. Governments respond with totalitarian measures in the name of "protecting the public."
Globalist institutions like the IMF step in and suggest that frail national monetary systems come under the management of their Special Drawing Rights basket in order to mitigate the debt crisis. Essentially, this is the first step to global governance.
Worst case scenario, the virus spreads throughout the U.S. and Europe and our governments respond the same way China's government has; martial law and full-blown concentration camp culture. This leads to civil war in the U.S. because we are armed and will shoot anyone trying to put us into quarantine camps. Europe is mostly screwed.
The establishment suggests that paper money be removed from the system because it is a viral spreader. China is already suggesting this solution now. Magically, we find ourselves in a cashless society in a matter of a year or two; which is what the globalists have been demanding for years. Everything goes digital, and thus completely centralized as private trade dies.
Again, this might be an engineered event, or it might simply be that the globalists are exploiting a natural outbreak. Either way, they are not going to let a good crisis go to waste. Whether or not they succeed is dependent on several factors, but mostly, its dependent on us. How many people will buy into the notion that centralization is the answer to our problems? How many people will realize that centralization is thecause of all our problems? And how many people will fight to prevent ultimate centralization under the psychopathic globalist cult?
A viral outbreak is a significant danger to us all, but an even greater threat is the supposed cure. Trading our economic and social freedom in the name of stopping the coronavirus? It's just not worth it.

To truth and knowledge,
Brandon Smith


 楼主| 发表于 2020-2-20 09:35:30 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 万得福 于 2020-2-21 09:31 编辑

https://www.usatoday.com/story/t ... ers-die/4815851002/
According to Japanese broadcast outlet, NHK, the two Japanese cruise passengers who died from the virus were an 87-year-old man and an 84-year-old woman.
The two passengers were taken to the hospital on Feb. 11 and 12, respectively, and each tested positive the day after they were admitted, Health Ministry official Masami Sakoi said. They are believed to have been infected before the ship was officially placed under quarantine on Feb. 5.
2020/02/20
鑽石公主號郵輪縂確診人數626人. 兩名死亡,分別是87嵗和84嵗。626/3711 = 16.9%感染率.  2/626= 0.3%死亡率。一月20號傳染源上船,25號下船,兩-三個星期后二月11號兩人進醫院,2月19號死亡。縂過程約一個月。二月五號宣佈全船隔離,到3月五號就基本上知道這次瘟疫的嚴重程度了。



发表于 2020-2-20 19:31:58 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 gejkl 于 2020-2-20 19:33 编辑

日本政府心是大了,但人不撒谎,得病就是得病了,防治失败就是失败了,媒体报道,公民职责,亡羊补牢,
土共是不会承认自己有责任的,不但不承认自己有责任,而且不去调查病毒的起源和经过,
习大大能不能带头做个批评和自我批评呢?那些武汉湖北死去的冤魂,是不是应该有个交代呢?
习大大亲自部署亲自领导的防疫战争,把几万武汉人打死了,把全国人民的心打烂了,把中小企业打破产了,把国家的穷锅底打穿了,把七常委的政治局打撒了,把中南海的党中央打跑了。习大大,您的人民战争胜利了?

 楼主| 发表于 2020-2-21 09:32:32 | 显示全部楼层
2020/02/21
The ship docked at a Yokohama port has the most COVID-19 cases outside of China, with 634 confirmed by late Thursday. Two former passengers have died.
634/3711 = 17.1%感染率.  
 楼主| 发表于 2020-2-23 23:20:18 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 万得福 于 2020-2-24 12:02 编辑

2020/02/23
691 名旅客確診,691/3711=18.6%。
36人嚴重病情。

三名死亡: 3/691=0.4%。
按嚴重肺炎的死亡率,得死200人。按普通住院肺炎死亡率,得死30-60人。拭目以待,且看日本的醫療水平是不是更高。
In total, 691 passengers — nearly one-fifth of the ship’s population — have been reported infected by the virus, according to the outlet.
https://nypost.com/2020/02/23/th ... ss-cruise-has-died/

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

 楼主| 发表于 2020-2-26 08:22:57 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 万得福 于 2020-2-26 15:23 编辑

2020/02/26
705 確診,4名死亡.
https://www3.nhk.or.jp/nhkworld/en/news/20200226_50/

 楼主| 发表于 2020-2-28 09:22:32 | 显示全部楼层

2020/02/28 705 確診,6名死亡. 近1%死亡率。

2020/02/28
705 確診,6名死亡. 近1%死亡率。
A total of 705 passengers and crew onboard the Diamond Princess were confirmed as having COVID-19.
Six people from the ship have now died, with the British man the first foreign passenger to die, Kyodo News said.
https://news.sky.com/story/coron ... -ship-dies-11945226

 楼主| 发表于 2020-3-2 10:43:20 | 显示全部楼层
2020/03/02
705 確診,7名死亡. 近1%死亡率。36重病患者。
全球除中國伊朗(數據污染太大,不可信)外,8329確診,91死亡, 1.1%死亡率。
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